Another War In Lebanon Soon?
TEL AVIV — Three years after the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, Syria and its Hezbollah ally (its invasion army) appear determined to block the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which sought to stabilize the region by requiring the Lebanese army to guard their borders with Syria and Israel, and the abolishment of Syrias Hezbollah army in Lebanon.
By preventing the election of a new president, in succession to Emile Lahoud, whose term ended last Nov. 23, both Syria and Hezbollah have two clear objectives:
* Syria wants to prevent at all costs the appointment of the international court that is to try Hariri’s assassins. All fingers point to Damascus as having masterminded the assassination.
* Hezbollah wants to make sure any future president and government would not try to disarm this pro-Iranian Shiite terrorist organization, as called for by Resolution 1701.
Because of these two uncompromising positions, all outside efforts to find a solution to the vacant presidency have failed.
Despite its skepticism, the U.S. had allowed France to mediate in this crisis. After many international conferences and great effort by France, the effort has failed. Syria promised to be “co-operative” but in reality blocked any compromise.
Then came an Arab effort. Following a unanimous decision by 22 Arab foreign ministers, including the Syrian minister, the Arab League presented a simple and clear cut proposal that met everyones approval except Syria which threw up many hurdles. Hezbollah and its Christian ally, Gen. Michel Aoun, wanted an agreement on the future government even before the election of the new president. They also wanted an agreement on the future army chief of staff in order to make sure he wouldn’t try to disarm Hezbollah, as called for by Resolution 1701.
In other words, the Syrians don’t want their murderous guilt proven before the world and they have no intention of ending their takeover attempt of Lebanon. They would rather see all of the Lebanese dead first.
With the French and Arab League failures, a frustrated Amr Moussa, last of the Arab League representatives to try, returned Saturday to Cairo, leaving to the rival Lebanese leaders the impossible task of finding a solution to their crisis. The result was as expected. Leaders from both camps engaged in reckless rhetoric, threatening each other with a renewed civil war.
The most furious rhetoric came from Democratic Gathering leader, Druze MP Waleed Jumblatt. He said Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nassrallah, and his Christian ally, Gen. Michel Aoun, are “tools” in the hands of the “most despicable” people, meaning the Syrian regime.
Jumblatt accused his rivals of preparing for the return of Syria to Lebanon. “Whatever your potency and whatever mercenaries you use, we are not afraid,” he said. “We will never kneel to Syria… If you want chaos, we welcome chaos… If you want war, we welcome war…”
This sharpened war of words came on the eve of the third anniversary of the assassination of Rafiq Hariri on Feb. 14. Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and leader of the pro-government coalition, Saad Hariri, are organizing a mass rally in only 2 days, on this coming Thursday in the Martyrs Square in Beirut, similar to the one-million rally that led to the withdrawal of the Syrian troops from Lebanon.
Hariri and his economic empire are organizing transportation to Beirut from all over the country. Hariri donated $52 million from his own pocket to finance various development and education projects in northern Lebanon, where Syrian influence is particularly strong. This man is pouring his own personal fortune into ridding Lebanon of the Syrian invaders.
The U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel are following with great concern this instability in Beirut. While the silent majority in Lebanon is still a majority, it is feared Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies would use violence to disrupt Thursday’s rally, which could degenerate into an open civil war.
As for Israel, the major concern in Jerusalem is that the chaos in Lebanon will spill over its northern border. According to Resolution 1701, the border is monitored jointly by UNIFIL and by the Lebanese army.
Israel fears Hezbollah will use this instability to infiltrate back into Southern Lebanon. Israel is aware of such an eventuality and is preparing itself for such an unwelcome development.
Lebanon could erupt into civil war in only two more days. This is serious business as it literally means war between Lebanon and Syria. It may seem strange to us in the West, but Lebanons best ally is Israel. Lebanons loyalties are divided between groups loyal to Syria and those loyal to Lebanon, and the latter are allies of Israel. This is simply because they support a peaceful, not-aggressive Lebanon and this is exactly what Israel wants as well.
In the event of a Lebanese civil war, would Israel come to the aid of their allies? And if they did, would the Syrians attack them? Israel would retaliate, of course, which would infuriate Russia and Iran and we might have to come to the defense of Israel.
I’m sure you can see now where a civil war in Lebanon could lead. The next few days are crucial.
Always open trackbacks. Just click on the title for the URL. And for an excellent summation of various global and internal threats, check this article on Right Truth.
February 12th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
They have had plenty time to restock weapons and yes I think we will see another war/conflict soon. I had forgotten that Rafiq Hariri was killed onon Feb. 14, Valentines Day. I almost feel sorry for Lebanon. We’ve seen the people take to the streets for freedom and democracy, only to have Hezbollah backed by Syria and Iran come in and destroy things.
February 12th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
good garsh…why oh why doesnt the IDF just do what it is inevitable~!
February 15th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Muslims Against Sharia congratulate the organization responsible for elimination of terrorist Imad Mugniyeh on a job well done!
http://muslimsagainstsharia.blogspot.com/2008/02/targeted-killing-of-imad-mugniyeh.html
February 15th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Yes, good job. Now if all the muslims of the world will just accept the fact that Islam is unrepairable without re-writing the entire Koran and throwing out about half of what that insane, murderous baby-raper Mohammad said, perhaps the world would know peace.
Or at least a lot more peace than it knows now. Mohammad was in fact insane. He was in fact a pedophile. How can anyone with a clean mind and clear conscience call someone like that a “Sacred Prophet” and virtually worship him?
It takes a sick mind to adore a sick mind.
Rastaman
February 16th, 2008 at 10:04 am
A quote from the “Muslims against Sharia” website:
“Muslim fundamentalists believe that the Koran is the literal word of Allah… Many Bible figures from Adam to Jesus (Isa) are considered to be prophets and are respected by Islam. Islamic scholars however believe that both the Old and the New Testament came from God, but that they were corrupted by the Jews and Christians over time. While neither Testament calls for mass murder of unbelievers, the Koran does. Could it be possible that the Koran itself was corrupted by Muslims over the last thirteen centuries?.”
Damn those Jews and Christians, hey? Going around corrupting stuff. Actually, no, the Koran was corrupt to begin with. It’s historical fact that the mad pedophilic monster Mohammad wrote the damned thing, which is why it’s full of violence, hatred and insane inconsistencies.
This website has a big Peace symbol in place of the islamic star but it’s just another total bullshit hate site. They may be against having to endure Sharia law, which shows they have at least a little sense, but all the rest of the old hate dogma is still perfectly intact. What they need to do is abandon Islam as a false doctrine that leads only to poverty, misery and death.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
I am sorry to see such ignorance among Israeli… I am a Christian Lebanese a Maronite… and I tell you, Israel is a terrorist state by excellence… Hizbulla might have done a lot of mistakes and I do not support any sort of divine militia, but have no mistakes they are not terrorists… They are Shia.. and all Terrorist groups like the one our National army fought in the North called Faith al Islam, and like Al Qaida are SUNI… those in this article depicted as the ALLIES of Israel (and that is a shame)… Hisbulla has never targeted any Lebanese civilian and rarely every any civilians except when they were in the field of battle… all Israelis are part of the army, therefore it is hard not to attack civilians when they are part of an army, they are no longer civilians… I do not agree on many acts of Hizbulla because I do not believe in Violence… but again have no mistake the Israeli hatred for Lebanese is obvious by what they did to Lebanon and the many innocent civilians killed even in places that Hizbulla never was there and by bombing Red Cross Ambulances… read all the Press Releases of the International Red Cross comity and the UNIFIL and Amnesty International and see who is the terrorist here.
Hariri was killed so that when Israel wages a war of hatred no one will be able to go around the world pleading for this blind bloodshed to be stop like he did back in 1996… The figures just talk by itself, look at the number of Civilians killed in the wars… and the number of children Israeli’s IDF killed in Lebanon Christians Muslims and Druze… or is it that the blood of Arabs is cheap??
Shame on that nation that talks about Democracy while real Arab Jews are treated like lesser humans while less rights then the European settlers… Israel is a horrible nightmare… that has committed more crimes than any other terrorist groups… As well the 52 million Dollars that Saad El Din Hariri “donated from his own fortune” to the north is a very ugly attempt to buy people… Lebanon is under 42 BILLION dollar dept, the bank that won most of the debt dues is for mister Hariri… if he wanted to do anything to his country he would have cancelled the debt.. or reduce it.. but all what these bunch of corrupted politicians want is for Hizbulla to be wept out so that they can steal more and more… I tell you for those who read the real facts.. morality is not on the side of Israel at all… And the Rally of 14th of February happened… and as you see no civil war has erupted.. as this article predicted… because in the end Lebanese do have a sense of unity, which is one thing Israel wants to destroy…
To hell with terrorism… to hell with Zionism…
Salam if you ever believe in it.
February 24th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
You’re a sheep, my friend. You believe everything the muslims tell you, if you really are a Christian.
For those who may read this, many Lebanese Christians side with the muslims over the Jews. As this person clearly and outspokenly does, SO outspokenly that I very much doubt his so-called Christian credentials. True Christians don’t talk like that.
The Israelis were not bombing ambulances or committing any other deliberate war crimes. What they WERE doing, and this is heavily documented fact, is doing their very best to prevent civilian casualties and treating the wounded TERRORISTS in their own hospitals at their own expense. How many Arab muslims did the same? NONE, of course. In the meantime Hezbollah were going out of their way to stage scenes of apparent disaster and blame it on the Israelis.
All this is old news. Why try to convince us now? Do you think it’s safe because by now we’ve all forgotten?
I’m sorry but you’re simply not convincing. Too much hatred. You come off exactly like every other Jew-hating muslim Arab. Find some love in your life.
February 27th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
hmmm…
February 27th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
I have done a big reply, quoted international documents that shows that war crimes of Israel specially in the last war… but it is not allowed to be posted here… typical… and then you call us haters… such cowards and hypocrites… why do u fear truth and reality? why do u delete posts that OBJECTIVELY quote WESTERN and not even Arab news sites and reports that shows how you rapped my country… you Terrorists… you have the power and control you are raping our lands women and children… if you are god’s people then what an ugly god he is… you should be ashamed of yourselves… I dare whoever controle this blog to let my previous post show here…
February 27th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
I deleted that pile of hatred and bile. It’s gone. Your ranting is so disconnected and frenetic that the energy of your rage comes through even when your points, if any, are lost.
Listen to you, flecks of spittle spraying as you rave about your hatred for anyone but your own people. “Israel is a horrible nightmare… that has committed more crimes than any other terrorist groups… ”
Even more than all the Arabs who have blown themselves up in Israeli marketplaces? More than those who have put bomb belts on their CHILDREN? More than all the terrorists in Lebanon and Palestine who have fired thousands of exploding rockets into Israeli villages? All Israel has ever done is defend herself and even then has been far too appeasing. Here you have a tiny country trying to hang on to her existence while surrounded on all sides by Arab enemies. A person would think that any decent human being, especially someone who calls theirself a Christian, would be speaking out for peace.
You’re just one more Jew-hating Arab as anyone reading your rantings can easily tell. Who do you think you’re fooling? You need to practice your taqqiya some more. You’re really poor at it.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:09 am
“I deleted that pile of hatred and bile. It’s gone.”
Yep. Now I’m editing this one. Future raging rants will be deleted in their entirety. There’s no convincing a fanatic.
So now the truth stated by independent media and HUMANETARIAN NGOs is hatred, while (jews) killing whole families and firing on Ambulances are not hatred?! My post was a reply to something you said, you said:”he Israelis were not bombing ambulances or committing any other deliberate war crimes.” …. I tried to show you that even UNIFIL forces and U.N. documents reported otherwise. (And we all know how unbiased the UN is.)
Again you try to focus on a point that is not even true and you call me a Jew-Hating… you want everyone to read that, while I have constantly said and made the point that I do not Hate the Jew… WE HAVE JEWS IN LEBANON IN CASE YOU DON’T KNOW… we have a Synagogue in Beirut, although many have left like most Lebanese because of the country’s situation… My family use to have business with Lebanese Jews toy sellers… now please stop telling people I am a Jew hater because that is such an absurd statement, read my posts before and tell me where is my Hatred for Jews? Well, let’s see. “The Jews are the terrorists, not the Palestinians”, “Israel is a terrorist state,” “the Jews bombed innocent civilians”, “the jews killed 3000 of them”, “children massacred by IDF”…. on and on and on.
or do you think I am a racist? No, I think you’re a Jew-hating muslim. Everything you rave on about is the same stuff every other blind muslim says. You have nothing but bad to say about Jews, not one kind word in spite of all they’ve done to make peace with you monsters. You’re a Jew hater right out front and you deny it and spew your hate in the same breath. I’m going to leave the rest of this post so people reading it will have no doubt about people like you. Any future posts of yours will be deleted. This is not a forum for raving maniacs.
Anyway 90% of the world saw the building IDF bombed on the heads of the families that was living there with no proof of Hezbollah being there, and I tried to give you proof you called it hatred and you deleted it. You want peace, although it is not easy accepting someone who kills your people… I think you are familiar with it… Most of us here never approved of the way this ugly killing is going… You think we rejoice when we know civilians have been killed in Israel (although as I said all the Israeli population is part of the army) But that would never justify terrorism… all what I am saying is think why Israel has been struck by terrorism… because it is a terrorist state, terrorism breeds terrorism… I will never forget the faces of Children massacred by IDF… if you do a small calculation how are trying to convince the world that Israel (the most advanced military force in the region) is weak while it is turned Gaza into a miserable land, and while it’s HATRED WAR on Lebanon did nothing to Hezbollah. and just destroyed a very fruitful summer season and drove the country in an economical crisis (and I doubt they wanted the war for anything else). We will talk about peace when your hate for us stop, you don’t ask for peace by killing our children and bombing our country, and bombing CHRISTIAN areas as well as Muslim areas that got nothing to do with Hezbollah.
February 28th, 2008 at 4:19 am
And to reply to this particular question:
“Even more than all the Arabs who have blown themselves up in Israeli marketplaces?”
Filled with lies. I deleted his diatribe. You didn’t miss anything. “Israelis are the terrorists, the muslims who blow themselves and busloads, filled cafes, entire wedding parties of 30, 40, 50 innocent men, women and children dead at one time, are justified, Jews killed 3000 innocent Lebanese and no Hizbollah,” on and on and on.