Revisiting Afghanistan
January 28th, 2008
Right Truth has noted that Bush seems to be re-energizing the terrorism-fighting war efforts in Afghanistan, the original target of a post-Sept. 11 offensive.
If so, then he obviously plans to move troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, and that “success in that country hinges on stopping Pakistan from descending into disorder.”
Therefor he will also be interfering in some manner in Pakistan, more than he already has. The current level of American interference in the Paki government is what has brought Musharraf so much dissent and has considerably destabilized the country. From his past performance it seems likely that Bush will push troops into Pakistans remote tribal areas, something I’ve commented on before. I suspect that we already have clandestine operations going on in Pakistan, and also that the location of Osama Bin Laden is known and that his killing or capture is being saved for the right political moment.
First, a quick historical review and then I’ll get to the point.
When the 9/11 attack came, we quickly learned who was behind it. Osama Bin Laden was in Afghanistan and supported by the Taliban, so we went to war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. When it became clear to them that they were losing, they left. They went to Pakistan where we couldn’t chase them because Pakistan is an ally, a quasi-stable Islamic country and a nuclear power. Without permission we could not enter and Osama and the Taliban knew it. So Bush, faced with defeat, mostly abandoned Afghanistan and took on Iraq, a war he figured he could win and it was such a great opportunity for American corporations.
Okay. Why, then, was the war in Afghanistan conducted in such a manner as to allow Osama and the Taliban to go to Pakistan? This is not a hindsight question. This is a foresight question. It is simply not possible that our great generals and all the superior artifice and capability of the Pentagon could not foresee that the enemy would go to Pakistan if they were chased out of Afghanistan. It was too obvious.
The war in Afghanistan was fought just long enough to drive the Taliban into Pakistan. By that time the plans had been hurriedly laid and all the false excuses made for war in Iraq. We stayed just long enough in force in Afghanistan to generate huge headlines of our success. Then out we went. Perhaps Afghanistan was merely an opportunistic stepping stone, and now is where hindsight comes into play. All we’re doing in Afghanistan now is a holding action and a poor one at that. We allow the opium poppy fields to not only thrive but to expand, which pour money into Taliban coffers, and what little eradication that is done, is done to no effect and yet is highly publicized as if it were.
If we enter Pakistan openly and in force, even with Musharrafs permission (which is extremely unlikely), all of Pakistan will rise against us, Musharraf will very likely be toppled from office by Islamic Fundamentalists and unless the Paki army stops them, they will have control of Pakistans nukes. Where things would go from there I can’t even guess.
The longer we’ve waged war in the Middle East, and this is apparent to us all now, the more Islamic violence has increased. This is because we’ve given them a rallying point, which is exactly what Osama set out to do. By getting us to engage, he is uniting muslims against us.
This is the fly in the ointment of Bush’s plan for Iraq. Afghanistan gave him his excuse for war but by paying too much attention to his own plans and not giving enough credit to Osama’s, we are now in this bind. And bind it is. If Bush surges back into Afghanistan and finishes the job and puts pres. Karzai and the tribal leaders back in the scrubs into full control again, and eradicates the poppy fields, and then establishes a permanent base all prior to his departure, it would give his party a huge boost and maybe ensure another Republican president this coming election.
What further plans, if any, that he has for Pakistan remain to be seen but my best guess is that a black-ops mission will go in and bring out Osama, another major political coup, and the world will be told that Musharrafs troops did it or else that Osama was captured just inside Afghanistan on a tip.
It’s going to be an interesting year.
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